At the end of August 2026, Manhattan had 2,800 new-development condo units left on the market. That is the lowest count since 2014, according to The Real Deal, citing Marketproof data. A large share of those units sits in a few towers that have been selling for years, and the publication named two of them, One Wall Street and 125 Greenwich. The same report said more than 60 percent of the remaining inventory is concentrated in the Financial District and Midtown, "where even newer buildings have struggled to sell in recent years."
Put that next to a second forecast from the same article. Between 2026 and 2029, the Financial District is projected to add no new major condo buildings. The neighborhood is still adding thousands of apartments, and the largest projects are rentals carved out of old office towers.
So FiDi has two clocks running for a condo buyer. In the short run, the sponsors here are still holding unsold units in a city where new inventory is scarce everywhere else. Over the longer run, the condo stock you buy into is unlikely to grow much, because most of the new supply around it is being built for renters.
The Offering Plan Is Where the Real Price Lives
In a long-marketed new building, the useful number is the gap between today's ask and the price the sponsor first filed, and the headline ask hides it. FiDi's sponsor buildings have a record of that gap getting wide.
At One Wall Street, a 28th-floor unit launched at $3.9 million in January 2025. The original offering plan had priced it at $5.8 million. In May 2024, The Real Deal reported that 465 of the building's 565 units were unsold and that average discounts were close to 25 percent, with sales just under $2,000 per square foot.
At The Greenwich, the 272-unit tower at 125 Greenwich Street, the July 2025 offering-plan amendment listed 140 units for sale at an average just above $2,000 per square foot. Listed units carried average discounts above 25 percent, and only nine of the 140 were priced above $4 million, compared with 38 in the original plan. That same Real Deal report counted 42 contracts since the first one in February 2024, a pace that pointed to a sellout around fall 2031.
A few blocks away, 77 Greenwich had cut some prices by as much as 30 percent from its original offering plan as of March 2025, with roughly 60 percent of its 89 units sold or in contract at an average of about $1,800 per square foot.
These figures are 2024 and 2025 snapshots. Every one of them has moved since. They are useful because they show how FiDi sponsors have behaved. Repricing has happened by amendment, building by building, over years. A buyer who only compares the current ask with nearby asks misses the history in the filings.
Elsewhere, New Condos Sell Before Anyone Sees Them
FiDi's position stands out because the rest of Manhattan's new-development market is so tight. From April through September 2026, new-development contracts fell 26 percent from a year earlier while resale condo contracts rose 12 percent. The Real Deal read that as buyers wanting condos and struggling to find new ones. Over the past year, sponsor sales outpaced new unit introductions two to one.
The examples elsewhere are striking. 1122 Madison was nearly sold out in less than a year. The Village West at 525 Sixth Avenue has moved all 68 of its units. 220 East Ninth Street sold every unit without ever opening a sales gallery. The launches expected this fall include 101 Franklin in Tribeca, 550 West 21st Street, and the Greenwich Spire at 11 West 13th Street. None of them is in the Financial District.
Borough-wide numbers point the same way. In the third quarter of 2026, Manhattan listing inventory fell 10.7 percent year over year, condo and co-op closed sales rose 8 percent, and new-development listings dropped nearly 40 percent, according to appraiser Jonathan Miller's figures as reported by The Real Deal. The Q3 2026 median condo and co-op price held at $1.25 million, a record and about 6 percent above the third quarter of 2025. The new-development median rose 14 percent to just under $2 million.
"Every time mortgage rates go higher, it puts downward pressure on inventory."
Miller said that to The Real Deal after the average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.28 percent in early October 2026, its highest level in three years. Owners holding older, cheaper mortgages stay put, and resale supply shrinks. Sponsor units never had that problem. A developer with unsold units in a finished tower has no low-rate mortgage to protect and every reason to keep closing deals.
FiDi's Pipeline Is Being Built for Renters
The Financial District is still growing quickly. The Downtown Alliance's Q2 2026 residential inventory, updated August 2026, counts 37,283 existing units in the Lower Manhattan business district and 4,211 more under construction. Most of the big names in that pipeline are office-to-residential conversions intended as rentals. The SoMA name for 25 Water Street comes from CityRealty's conversion roundup.
| Building | Units | Status per Downtown Alliance |
|---|---|---|
| SoMA, 25 Water Street | 1,300 | Rental conversion, opened 2025 |
| 55 Broad Street | 571 | Rental conversion, opened 2025 |
| 111 Wall Street | 1,500 | Under construction |
| 222 Broadway | 798 | Under construction |
| 77 Water Street | 600 | Under construction |
| 61 Broadway | 796 | Planned |
| 80 Pine Street | 713 | Planned |
| 40 Exchange Place | 382 | Planned |
| 80 Broad Street | 326 | Planned |
Unit counts vary somewhat by source. Other reports put 25 Water Street at 1,320 apartments, for example. The Alliance's May 2026 pipeline lists opening dates as "TBD" for every conversion in the table that has not yet opened. The same pipeline does include a few ground-up condo projects, all with "TBD" dates: 161 Maiden Lane with 80 units and 45 Park Place with 50 under construction, and 45 Broad Street with 206 planned. 61 Broadway has been reported as a 796-unit rental with roughly 200 affordable units and first deliveries expected in the first half of 2028, per New York YIMBY. The Alliance also lists One Wall Street itself as a completed 566-unit condo conversion. It is the exception that shows how rare condo conversions have become.
The incentive behind this wave helps explain why the pipeline tilts to rentals. Under the city's 467-m program for commercial conversions, HPD says eligible buildings must be operated as rental housing. At least 25 percent of the units must be affordable rentals, including at least 5 percent at 40 percent of area median income, and the affordable units' weighted average may not exceed 80 percent of AMI. When a developer converts an office tower with this tax benefit, the result is a rental building by design.
What the Two Clocks Mean for a Buyer
For a condo buyer comparing FiDi with Tribeca, the Village or the Upper East Side, the situation looks like this. FiDi is one of the few places in Manhattan where unsold sponsor inventory gives a buyer room to negotiate, at a time when new buildings elsewhere sell out before marketing begins. The forecast also shows no major new condo towers arriving in FiDi through 2029 to compete with your unit when you eventually resell.
The thousands of conversion rentals are a separate question. No study has measured their effect on FiDi condo values. In structural terms, they add residents and street life while adding nothing to the stock of apartments for sale. A future resale buyer in FiDi will be choosing mostly among the condo buildings that already exist, and some of those buildings are still working through sponsor inventory.
That is why the questions worth asking in a FiDi sponsor building go beyond the asking price:
- How has this unit's price changed across offering-plan amendments? The original plan and each amendment show how far the sponsor has already moved.
- How many units remain unsold, and at what pace are contracts signing? A building with years of inventory left will have resale listings competing with sponsor listings for a long time.
- What share of the building does the sponsor still own? At 125 Greenwich's July 2025 pace, the answer pointed years ahead to a fall 2031 sellout.
- Which recent closings set the comps? At One Wall Street, unit 3304 closed for $9.08 million, above $3,000 per square foot, against a last ask of $9.75 million. That made it the building's priciest sale and the Financial District's most expensive residential sale since October 2022, as of August 2025. High-floor records and lower-floor discounts can sit side by side in the same tower.
This post is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Please review any offering plan and its amendments with your attorney, and confirm your own situation with the right professionals.
FAQ
Could the rental conversions become condos later? HPD says buildings using the 467-m benefit must be operated as rental housing. For questions about a specific building's long-term obligations, go to the program page and the building's own filings.
Does the record $1.25 million Manhattan median apply to FiDi? That Q3 2026 figure covers condos and co-ops across all of Manhattan. FiDi pricing varies widely by building, by floor and by whether the seller is a sponsor or a resale owner, so building-level comps tell you far more.
Are new condos coming anywhere Downtown? Yes, though not in FiDi. Downtown deliveries are forecast to fall 10 percent from 2026 to 2029. Fall 2026 launches include 101 Franklin in Tribeca and 550 West 21st Street.
If you are weighing a sponsor unit in the Financial District against resale options elsewhere in Manhattan, The Shapot Team can go through the offering-plan history, the remaining inventory and the closed comps for the specific buildings on your list. Request a Market Consultation, and we will start with the filings.
